Early Mortality Prediction in Acute Pancreatitis

The early prediction of mortality in acute pancreatitis: a large population-based study. Wu Et al. Gut 2008; 57:1698-1703

Back after an extended Christmas break with thanks to Miss. Emma Collins for sharing this recent presentation from QMC’s journal club, a copy of which can be found in the blue box to the right.

This reterospective study used regression analysis to identify risk factors for early mortality within the first 24 hours of admission. The subsequent scoring system was compared against APACHE II and tested against the same database.

They determined 5 risk factors were most predictive, (age > 60, BUN, impaired mental status, SIRS criteria met and pleural effusion). Although a potentially useful tool the paper was criticised by the QMC club for comparing outcome data with APACHE II (not current standard prediction model in these patients) and for gaps in APACHE data.


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